Romney and his supporters see the voters as existing along a one dimensional line going from extreme right to extreme left. Using this model they seek to place Romney just past the 50% mark between extreme left and extreme right. Thus, in order to win the Republican nomination, Romney plans to fool the conservatives that he is at the 25% point toward the right and then after nomination he’ll reposition himself at the 51% point by moving left.
The Nolan chart’s dashed line is the extent of Romney and his supporters one dimensional world. But the Nolan chart is two dimensional and Romney ignores the areas off his line. The reality is that Romney and his supporters live in a three dimensional world and voters are not in equal numbers on both sides of his Nolan line, nor even in the same two dimensional geometric plane. A better picture is a variant of the Nolan Chart which uses red for leftism and blue for rightism to show a more accurate weights to the numbers of voters in each group. These red and blue numbers are found in the Gallup survey which in 2011 showed 41% conservative, 38% moderate and 21% liberal.
Even this variant of the Nolan Chart does not show the three dimensional volumes of voters, of non-voters and of may-vote-this-time voters. Unlike the Romney model, voters are not trapped one dimensionally between a Republican area and a Democrat area, they can come from anywhere in the voter-three-dimensional-volume and even from the usually-not-voting volume. The winning Presidential candidate will not attract voters just between their two fields along a one dimensional line, but from all three directions.
Obama wisely seeks the student-vote, the illegal-immigrant-and-supporter-of-illegal-vote, and the remaining Black vote from the Black-usually-not-voting-volume. Outside the always-vote-Republican-volume are lots of conservative people who have no respect for Republican nor Democrat politicians and when Romney moves to capture the voters between the Republican and Democrat volumes, he becomes less attractive as a typical Republican politician to these voters.
Wake up Romney, the weighted center balance point on the variant Nolan Chart is not in the Centrism area but across the line in the Rightism area. A firm written commitment to Tea Party like fiscal principles and conservative values will attract the majority to you. Failure to do so makes you appear as a pandering politician rather than a principled conservative, with the consequential loss of voters.